
Announcement
To all my loyal followers,
I am very happy to let you know of the newly created Center for Macroeconomics and Development website.
Please do follow the link above to browse through all material published on this WordPress site and much more.
Please note that this WordPress site will no longer be updated.
With great appreciation,
Otaviano Canuto
Principal
Center for Macroeconomics and Development

Global imbalances and currency bullying
Coming out next Monday, July 30, on Seeking Alpha, INTERFIMA, Roubini EconoMonitor, and OCP Policy Center
The IMF released last July 24 its latest assessments of the current account balances for the 30 largest economies in its External Sector Report 2018 (ESR). There was no major change in 2017 relative to previous years and the reconfiguration of surpluses and deficits that has prevailed since 2013 was essentially extended. However, there are reasons to expect more abrupt alterations ahead, as the U.S. fiscal easing under high employment conditions unfolds. Given the context of ongoing U.S.-led trade wars, as well as the recent bout of Chinese exchange rate depreciation, one may wonder about the prospects of currencies also becoming subject to war or rather to what Citi has called “currency bullying”.
Global current account balances have evolved along a stable configuration since 2013…
Chart 1 depicts the evolution of current account balances of major 30 economies in the period of 1997-2017. After the substantial climb prior to – and its unwinding in the aftermath of – the global financial crisis, the absolute sum of surpluses and deficits has remained close to 3.25% of global GDP (the peculiarities of the first phase are approached in Canuto (2017)).
The overall stable landscape featured changes in composition. More recently, China’s current account surpluses have gradually diminished, while Japan, euro area debtor countries and oil-exporting countries have moved in the opposite direction. Below the line, in the case of deficit countries, while the U.S. stayed as the major case, emerging market economies have displayed divergent trajectories: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa have left the “fragile” position of the “taper tantrum” in 2013, while Argentina joined Turkey in that zone (Canuto, 2013) (Canuto, 2018).
Asymmetric macroeconomic policy stances among advanced economies since 2013 have also affected the evolution of balances. While some economies have combined large surpluses and weak domestic demand (e.g., Germany, Japan, Netherlands), United Kingdom and United States exhibited stronger recoveries in their domestic demands.
In the case of the U.S., the expansionary effects of last year’s tax cuts have already started to appear in the GDP figures of the second quarter. Although accompanied by a surge in exports, to some extent reflecting anticipation of sales abroad for fear of trade wars becoming fiercer, the U.S. current account deficit is poised to rise.
Stock positions of countries in terms of net international investments evolve according to previous current account balances and the corresponding valuation of assets. Those stocks, in turn, are also among factors determining future current account balances (Alberola et al, 2018). In 2017, valuation effects – including from U.S. dollar weakening – led to a stability of global stock positions (IMF, 2018).
… while real effective exchange rate (REER) and current account gaps have remained significant…
National economies are not expected to exhibit zero current-account balances and stocks of net foreign assets. At any period, domestic absorption – consumption and investment – can be larger or smaller than the local GDP, triggering inflows or outflows of capital, due to “fundamental” factors (Canuto, 2017):
- Differences in intertemporal preferences and age structures of their populations mean different ratios of domestic consumption to GDP;
- Differences in opportunities for investment also tend to lead to capital flows;
- Differences in institutional development levels, reserve currency statuses and other idiosyncratic features also generate capital flows and imbalances;
- Cyclical factors – including fluctuations in commodity prices – may also cause transitory increases and declines in balances; and
- As referred above, countries’ outstanding stocks of net foreign assets also have a counterpart in terms of service payments in their current accounts.
When global imbalances – and corresponding real effective exchange rates (REERs) – reflect such fundamentals, economies are in a better place than they would be in autarky (isolated with zero balances). There are situations, however, in which such imbalances may be gauged as in excess with respect to notional values suggested by fundamentals.
The IMF External Sector Report has now for six years offered assessments comparing actual current account balances – and REERs – with those that would reflect medium-term fundamentals and desired policies. Chart 2 shows the evolution of current account gaps in 2012-2017, where stronger (weaker) means that a current account balance is larger (smaller) than that “consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies”.
Last year, Germany, the Netherlands, Singapore and Thailand (“substantially stronger”); Malaysia (“stronger”); and China, Korea and Sweden (“moderately stronger), held current account gaps above 4, between 2 and 4, and between 1 and 2 percentage points of GDP, respectively. The euro area was also “moderately stronger,” moving up from the alignment of previous years.
On the other side, Argentina, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Kingdom (“weaker”); and Canada, France, Russia, South Africa, Spain and the U.S. (“moderately weaker”), showed negative current account gaps in the ranges of 2-4 and 1-2 percentage points of GDP, respectively. Within the euro zone, large positive gaps (Germany, Netherlands) have co-lived asymmetrically with negative gaps (Belgium, France, Spain), and the euro zone as a whole moved to a positive gap because of shrinking negative gaps in France, Italy and Spain. Notice the absence last year of “substantially weaker” cases.
As one might expect, REER and current account assessments, according to the IMF report, are closely linked to each other. Stronger (weaker) REERs in Chart 2, corresponding to “undervaluation” (“overvaluation”), may also be seen in Chart 3.
… and the U.S. Treasury is scheduled to present the next FX report in October
Next October, the U.S. Treasury will report again to Congress on “macroeconomic and foreign exchange policies of major trading partners of the United States” (last time was April). A country may be named a “currency manipulator” according to three criteria, besides being considered a major U.S. trading partner: certain levels of bilateral trade surplus with the U.S., overall current account surplus, and one-sided foreign exchange interventions geared at maintaining depreciation. Japan (1988), Taiwan (China) (1988 and 1992), and China (1992-1994) have ben previous cases of such denomination.
In case a country is considered as crossing the 3 lines and is labeled as “currency manipulator”, down the road there may be consequences as denial of access to the U.S. government procurement, the USTR taking it into account in bilateral or regional agreements, and others (see Citi Global Economics View, “Currency bullying and currency manipulators”, 25 July 2018).There are no countries currently named as “currency manipulators”, but China, Japan, Korea, Germany, India, and Switzerland comprise the current “monitoring list” because they are classified as fulfilling 1 or 2 of those criteria. There are hints that this watch list might be increased, although analysts are not expecting any labeling of “currency manipulator” in this forthcoming report – the application of previously used thresholds does not point to any country crossing all three fault lines (Chart 4).
The Chinese Renminbi has depreciated sharply in recent weeks, partially reversing the course of appreciation that started mid-2007. The IIF (2018) alludes to a possibility that Chinese authorities might be adopting a “neglect” stance as a signal amid the ongoing trade battles with the Trump government, but also highlights risks of substantial capital outflows being triggered – like in 2015 (Chart 5) – with corresponding shocks on China’s financial markets and elsewhere in the world, including global risk assets. The possibility of mutually damaging financial effects between U.S. and China might impose some limits to the “currency bullying” as a proxy to the trade war. Furthermore, as we saw, the U.S. Treasury is not likely to name China as a “currency manipulator”. Nonetheless, rhetoric and “currency bullying” are likely to remain loud as the U.S. trade and current account deficits rise ahead and global imbalances aggravate.
Otaviano Canuto is an Executive Director of the World Bank. The opinions expressed in this article are his own. Follow him at @ocanuto
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OTAVIANO CANUTO – LINKS TO PUBLICATIONS (2007 – July 2018) (English)
OTAVIANO CANUTO – LINKS TO PUBLICATIONS (2007 – July 2018) (English)
Peer-reviewed articles (PR), books and chapters, policy papers and op-eds
By Topics
Middle-Income Growth Traps
- (PR) Access to finance, product innovation and middle-income traps, with Pierre-Richard Agenor, Research in Economics 71 (2017), p.337-355 (earlier version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6767. February 2014).
- (PR) Middle-income growth traps, with Pierre-Richard Agenor, Research in Economics 69 (2015), p.641-660 (earlier version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6210. September 2012).
- Overcoming Middle-Income Traps, Capital Finance International, winter, 2012-2013.
- Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps, with Pierre-Richard Agénor and Michael Jelenic. Economic Premise 98, November 2012. [VoxEU – Avoiding middle income growth traps]
- The East Asian Miracle 2.0, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2012.
- Navigating the Road to Riches, Project Syndicate, July 2011
Emerging Market Economies
- (Book) Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets – Current Perils and Future Dawns, Gevorkyan, Aleksandr V., Canuto, Otaviano (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, 2016.
- Emerging Markets and the Post-2008 World, with Aleksandr Gevorkyan
- (Book) Ascent After Decline: Regrowing Global Economies After the Great Recession with Danny Leipziger (eds.), Washington: World Bank, 2012.
- Preface, with Danny Leipziger
- The Challenges of Growth, with Danny Leipziger and Brian Pinto
- (Book) The Day After Tomorrow: A Handbook on the Future of Economic Policy in the Developing World, with Marcelo Giugale (eds.),. Washington D.C.: World Bank, September 2010.
- Preface, with Marcelo Giugale
- Synthesis, with Marcelo Giugale
- Recoupling or Switchover? Developing Countries in the Global Economy
- Technological Learning: Climbing a Tall Ladder, with Mark A. Dutz and José Guilherme Reis
- Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis, with Milan Brahmbhatt and Ekaterina Vostroknutova
- Emerging markets face multiple tantrums, INTERFIMA, July 2018.
- Developing economies face tantrums, OMFIF Bulletin, July-August 2018.
- Argentina, Turkey and the May Storm in Emerging Markets, INTERFIMA, June 2018.
- Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads, with Samuel George, INTERFIMA, March 2017.
- Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves Capital Finance International, winter 2015-2016.
- Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads, with Samuel George, INTERFIMA, September 2016.
- Tales of Emerging Markets, with Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, INTERFIMA, August 2016.
- Capital Flows and Deleveraging in Emerging Markets: The Great Portfolio Rebalancing, with Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, INTERFIMA, March 2016.
- Shadow Banking in China: A Morphing Target, with Lusha Zhuang, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, November 2015.
- China and Emerging Markets: Riding Wild Horses, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, February 2014.
- QE Tapering as a Wake-up Call for Emerging Markets, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2013.
- Emerging Markets and the unwinding of quantitative easing, Capital Finance International, autumn 2013.
- Emerging Markets Selloff: What’s Next? Roubini’s EconoMonitor, August 2013.
- China, Brazil: Two Tales of a Growth Slowdown, Capital Finance International, summer 2013.
- Lost in Transition, Project Syndicate, December 2013.
- China: The Morphing Dragon Growth and Crisis Blog – World Bank, May 2013.
- Growing after the Crisis: Boosting Productivity in Developing Countries, Growth and Crisis Blog – World Bank, April 2013.
- Currency War and Peace, Project Syndicate, March 2013.
- Foreword with Catiana García-Kilroy and Anderson Caputo Silva. Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook 2013. euromoney-yearbooks.com/handbooks. October 2012
- The New Financial Landscape: What It Means for Emerging Market Economies with Catiana García-Kilroy and Anderson Caputo Silva, Economic Premise 87, August 2012.
- How to Ascend after Declining? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2012.
- A State of Hope in a State of Uncertainty Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2012.
- Foreword with Catiana García-Kilroy and Anderson Caputo Silva. Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook 2012. euromoney-yearbooks.com/handbooks, October 2011
- Can Developing Countries Continue to Lead Global Growth? International Economic Bulletin, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. January 2011
- Risky Growth Engines, Project Syndicate, January 2011
- Toward a Switchover of Locomotives in the Global Economy. Economic Premise 33, September 2010.
- Emerged Economies with Marcelo Giugale. Foreign Policy. November 2010.
- Introduction, with Justin Lin, In Mustapha Nabli (ed.), The Great Recession and Developing Countries: Economic Impact and Growth Prospects, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, December 2010.
- Foreword with Catiana García-Kilroy and Anderson Caputo Silva (PDF). Euromoney Emerging Markets Handbook 2011. euromoney-yearbooks.com/handbooks. October 2010.
- The Day After Tomorrow: Growth Switchover, with Marcelo Giugale, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, September 2010.
- Challenges in the coming phase of globalisation: A sense of déjà vu, with José Manuel Salazar, VoxEU, June 2010.
- Recoupling or Switchover, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, June 2010 [full note: Recoupling or Switchover, PREM – World Bank]
- Stiglitz’s New Book and the Developing Countries, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2010.
- Decoupling, Reverse Coupling and All That Jazz, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, September 2009.
- The Developing World in a Post-Bubble Economy, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, April 2009.
- Trade finance, banking introspection and emerging economies, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, March 2009.
- Emerging Markets and the Systemic Sudden Stop, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, November 2008.
Latin America and the Caribbean
- Latin American economies face political crossroads in 2018, INTERFIMA, January 2018.
- Cuba Online, with Samuel George, INTERFIMA, August 2017.
- Colombia: getting peace, getting growth, with Diana Quintero, INTERFIMA, March 2017.
- China’s Spill-Overs on Latin America and the Caribbean Capital Finance International, summer 2016.
- Suriname: Facing the Storm with a Correction of Course? INTERFIMA, October 2016.
- TTIP and TPP — A Threat to Latin America? with Samuel George and Cornelius Fleischhaker, INTERFIMA, March 2016.
- Latin American Corporate Finance: Is There a Dark Corner?, Let’s Talk Development, World Bank, February 2015
- A new day in Colombia, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, with Cornelius Fleischhaker and Samuel George, December 2015.
- Oil Prices and the Future of Petrocaribe, with Frank Fuentes, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, September 2015.
- Small Is Beautiful… but Vulnerable! With Veronica Ramcharan, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, August 2015.
- Nicaragua: A Success Story in the Making, with Manoel Coronel, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, November 2015.
- Not Your Granma’s Cuba: A New Day in the Caribbean, with Cornelius Fleischhaker and Samuel George, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, July 2015.
- Argentina at a Crossroads, with Cornelius Fleischhaker and Samuel George, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2015.
- Bucking the Trend: Poverty Reduction and Inequality in Latin America, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, June 2012.
- Latin America and the Global Financial Turmoil, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2007.
- Securitization in Latin America: advantages of latecomers, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2007.
- Repricing of Latin American Risks, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, August 2007.
Brazil
- Benefits and Costs of Opening Brazil’s Foreign Trade, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, August 2018.
- Dissolving corruption in Brazil, OMFIF Bulletin, October 2017.
- Brazil’s Economic Deliverance, Project Syndicate, September 2017.
- Does Brazil’s Sector Structure Explain Its Productivity Anemia?, with Fernanda De Negri, INTERFIMA, June 2017.
- Long-term finance and BNDES tapering in Brazil, with Matheus Cavallari, INTERFIMA, June 2017.
- Brazil’s Pension Reform Proposal is Necessary and Socially Balanced, INTERFIMA, April 2017
- The Brazilian Debt Hangover, INTERFIMA, January 2017.
- Where has all the BRL depreciation gone? Financial Times, December 22, 2016
- What’s Ailing the Brazilian Economy? Capital Finance International, autumn 2016.
- Brazil Needs an Honest Weight Loss Huffington Post, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2016.
- A Straitjacket to Help Brazil Fight Fiscal Obesity Huffington Post, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2016.
- Brazil’s Way Out, Project Syndicate, September 2016
- Brazil at the Crossroads, with Samuel George and Cornelius Fleischhaker, INTERFIMA, April 2016.
- What’s Ailing Brazil? Project Syndicate, February 2016.
- Currency depreciation is silver lining of Brazil’s recession, with Corneliu, s Fleischhaker, Financial Times, December 9, 2015
- Trade Opening Could Be a Source of Growth for Brazil, Capital Finance International, autumn 2015.
- Are Mega-Trade Agreements a Threat to Brazil? Roubini’s EconoMonitor, February 2015.
- Navigating Brazil’s Path to Growth, Capital Finance International, winter 2014-2015.
- The High Density of Brazilian Production Chains, Let’s Talk Development – World Bank, November 2014.
- The cost of Brazil’s closed economy, with Cornelius Fleischhaker and Philip Schellekens, Financial Times, January 14, 2015 + [VoxEU: The curious case of Brazil’s closedness to trade(w/ Cornelius Fleischhaker and Philip Schellekens)] + [The Curious Case of Brazil’s Closed Economy (w/ Cornelius Fleischhaker and Philip Schellekens)]
- The Curious Case of Brazil’s Closedness to Trade,with Cornelius Fleischhaker and Philip Schellekens, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper n.7228, April 2015
- Three Perspectives on Brazilian Growth Pessimism, with Philip Schellekens, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2014.
- What’s Holding Back Brazil? Project Syndicate, February 2014.
- Brazil: Chasing Animal Spirits, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2013.
- The Brazilian Competitiveness Cliff, with Matheus Cavallari and Jose Guilherme Reis,
Economic Premise 105, February 2013. {Vox EU – The Brazilian Competitiveness Cliff] - Brazilian Competitiveness: Folia and Hangover, with Matheus Cavallari and Jose Guilherme Reis, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, February 2013.
- Brazilian Exports: Climbing Down a Competitiveness Cliff, with Matheus Cavallari and Jose Guilherme Reis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6302, January 2013.
- Vulnerability, Exchange Rate and International Reserves: Whither Brazil? with Bruno Saraiva, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, November 2009.
- Brazil is not underperforming, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, July 2007.
- Greenspan in the mirror: risk management in Brazil’s monetary policy, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, May 2007.
Fiscal policy and public sector management
- Pro-cyclical emerging market policy: new evidence,with Francisco Carneiro and Leonardo Garrido, VoxEU, July 2015.
- When it comes to fiscal policy, it’s better to save for a rainy day than to let it pour, with Francisco Carneiro and Leonardo Garrido, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2015.
- Fiscal Policy: Cycle and Space Matter, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, January 2015.
- Fiscal Policy Redux, Capital Finance International, spring 2013.
- Fiscal Policy for Growth and Development with Milan Brahmbhatt, Economic Premise 91. October 2012.
- Overview – Fiscal Policy for Growth and Development, with Milan Brahmbhatt, In Moreno-Dodson, B. (ed.), Is Fiscal Policy the Answer? A Developing Country Perspective, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2013 (p.1-22).
- Where Rubber Hits the Road: Reforming Public Sector Management, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, December 2012.
- In Times of Consecutive Crises, Is Fiscal Policy the Answer? Roubini’s EconoMonitor, December 2012.
- Fiscal Policy for Shared Prosperity, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2012.
- Like a Hummingbird – From Chile to Mongolia, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2012.
- Can Non-State Service Delivery Undermine Governments? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, October 2012.
- Not All That Glitters Is Gold: GDP Per Capita as Yardstick for Living Standards, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, September 2012.
- Political Economy in a Bad Economy Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, January 2012.
- Picking Up the Pieces, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2011.
- How Public Spending Can Help You Grow Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2011.
- The Day After Tomorrow: Will We Ever Trust the State? with Marcelo Giugale, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, December 2010.
- The Day After Tomorrow: Fiscal Quality with Marcelo Giugale, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, October 2010.
Subnational Debt, Debt Restructuring and national sovereign ratings
- (Book) Until Debt Do Us Part: Subnational Debt, Insolvency, and Markets, with Lili Liu (eds.), Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2013.
- An Overview, with Lili Liu
- Until Subnational Debt Do Us Part, with Lili Liu, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2013.
- (PR) Orderly Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Missing in Action! (And Likely To Remain So), with Brian Pinto and Mona Prasad, The World Bank Research Observer, Volume 29, Issue 1, February 2014, Pages 109–135 (earlier version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6054, May 2012).
- (PR) Macroeconomics and Sovereign Risk Ratings with Pablo Fonseca P. dos Santos and Paulo C. de Sá Porto. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 2. May 2012.
- Subnational Debt, Insolvency, and Market Development, with Lili Liu.
Economic Premise 112, April 2013. - Bankrupt Sovereigns: Is There an Orderly Way Out? , Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2013.,
- Procrastination is Costly, Action is Priceless, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, June 2012.
- Subnational Debt Finance and the Global Financial Crisis with Lili Liu, Economic Premise 13, May 2010.
- Shadow Sovereign Ratings with Sanket Mohapatra and Dilip Ratha, Economic Premise 63, August 2011 [VoxEU: shadow sovereign ratings, September 2011]
- Credit Ratings Matter for Those Who Need Them Most Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, August 2011.
- Straitjackets on Brazilian Sub-National Finance Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2007.
Monetary policy and the global economy
- (Book) Dealing with the challenges of macro financial linkages in emerging markets, with Swati Ghosh (eds.), Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2013.
- Summary, with Swati Ghosh
- Monetary Policy and Macro Prudential Regulation: Whither Emerging Markets, with Matheus Cavallari
- Global imbalances and currency bullying, INTERFIMA, July 2018.
- Lowering the Fed balance sheet, OMFIF Bulletin, May 2018.
- The Double Side of the Fed’s Balance Sheet Unwinding, INTERFIMA, April 2018.
- The Metamorphosis of Financial Globalisation, Capital Finance International, autumn 2017.
- Bloated Central Bank Balance Sheets, with Matheus Cavallari, Capital Finance International, spring 2017.
- Global Imbalances on the Rise, Capital Finance International, winter 2016-2017.
- Trump: Can You Deliver It? With Matheus Cavallari, INTERFIMA, November 2016.
- The Global Economy Remains Unbalanced, INTERFIMA, November 2016.
- De-Risking Is De-Linking Small States from Global Finance, with Veronica Ramcharan, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2015.
- Macroeconomics and Stagnation – Keynesian-Schumpeterian Wars, Capital Finance International, spring 2014.
- Sluggish Postcrisis Growth: Policies, Secular Stagnation, and Outlook, with Raj Nallari and Breda Griffith, Economic Premise n.139, April 2014.
- Secular Stagnation: A Working Pair of Scissors Needs Two Blades, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2014.
- Crisis Recovery: Flying on a Single Engine Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2014.
- Walking on the Wild Side – Monetary Policy and Prudential Regulation, Capital Finance International, winter 2013-2014.
- Calibrating 2014, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, January 2014.
- Dealing with the challenges of macro financial linkages in emerging markets, with Swati Ghosh, Economic Premise 129, November 2013.
- Finance as Economic Cholesterol Roubini’s EconoMonitor, September 2013.
- Marrying Monetary Policy and Financial Regulation, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, September 2013.
- Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation: Whither Emerging Markets with Matheus Cavallari. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6310, January 2013.
- Asset Prices, Macroprudential Regulation, and Monetary Policy, with Matheus Cavallari, Economic Premise 116, May 2013. [VoxEU – Integrating monetary policy and macroprudential regulation]
- Shifting Tectonic Places Under Global Banking, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, October 2012.
- Is Shadow Banking Dangerous for You? Roubini’s EconoMonitor, September 2012.
- Goodbye Financial Engineers, Hello Political Wonks, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, August 2012.
- Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis: Putting the House in Order, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2012.
- Capital Account Liberalization: Are there Lessons to be Learned? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2012.
- How Complementary Are Prudential Regulation and Monetary Policy?, Economic Premise 60, June 2011
- A Marriage of Convenience, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2011.
- Reviving a Policy Marriage, Project Syndicate, April 2011
- The Cost of Financial Reform for Emerging Markets, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2011.
- Whither the U.S. Dollar, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2011.
- Currency Wars Yesterday and Today, with Milan Brahmbhatt and Swati Gosh, Economic Premise 43, December 2011.
- Managing Economic Policy in a Multipolar World, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2011.
- The Day After Tomorrow: Macro-Financial Policy Catches Up With Reality, with Marcelo Giugale, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, January 2011.
- The Arrival of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, October 2009 [full note: The Arrival of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy, PREM – World Bank]
International Trade and Technology
- Realizing Globalization’s Innovative Potential, Project Syndicate, August 2018.
- Climbing a tall knowledge ladder, INTERFIMA, May 2018.
- Making returns on knowledge, OMFIF Bulletin, June 2018.
- Can Services Replace Manufacturing as an Engine for Development? Capital Finance International, Spring 2018.
- The Future of Manufacturing in the Global South, Project Syndicate, April 4, 2018
- Overlapping Globalisations, Capital Finance International, winter 2017-2018.
- China and the new phase of trade expansion, OMFIF Bulletin, December 2017.
- NAFTA at the Crossroads, with Samuel George and Michael McKeon, INTERFIMA, May 2017.
- Protectionist Creeps Project Syndicate, October 2016.
- What Happened to World Trade? Capital Finance International, spring 2016.
- Has the Global Trade-Development Link Peaked?, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, January 2016.
- The Impacts of Trade Facilitation Measures on International Trade Flows,with Paulo C.de Sá Porto and Cristiano Morini, World Bank Research Policy Working Paper 7367, July 2015.
- Trade Facilitation: Diplomacy May Be Catching Up, with Paulo Costacurta Sá Porto and Cristiano Morini, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, December 2015
- South-South Trade through Value-Added Glasses, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, September 2013.
- What It Takes for Trade to Reduce Poverty in Africa , Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2013.
- Trade: The World Is Not Flat Yet, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2013.
- Mobilizing Development via Mobile Phones Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, January 2013.
- Harnessing Trade Opportunities for Growth and Development, Capital Finance International. Summer 2012.
- Revolutionary Services, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2012.
- Connecting Wagons: Why and How to Help Lagging Regions Catch Up, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, October 2012.
- Facilitating Trade, Facilitating Development, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, July 2012.
- Connected to Compete? Not as Much as We Could Be, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2012.
- Collaborative Border Management: A New Approach to an Old Problem, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2012.
- The Doha Round: Much More than Market Access, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2011.
- Trade Finance and the Financial Crisis, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, September 2011.
- Asia and South America: A Quasi-Common Economy Approach, with Manu Sharma, Economic Premise 65, September 2011.
- Economic Integration: A Quasi-Common Economy Approach, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, September 2011.
- Who SEZ One Size Fits All? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, September 2011.
- Diversify, Diversify, Diversify, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, June 2011.
- Sophisticated Exports, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2011.
- The Day After Tomorrow: A Different Kind of Trade with Marcelo Giugale, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2011.
- The Day After Tomorrow: If You Want To Grow, Learn with Marcelo Giugale, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, January 2011.
- Technological Learning and Innovation: Climbing a Tall Ladder with Mark A. Dutz, and José Guilherme Reis., Economic Premise 21, July 2010.
- Export-led Growth v2.0 with Mona Haddad and Gordon Hanson, Economic Premise 3, March 2010.
- The Doha Trade Round is Worth Fighting For, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2009.
Natural-Resource Led Development
- Sovereign Wealth Funds Are Coming Home, with Havard Halland, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, February 2014.
- A Billion-Dollar Opportunity for Developing Countries with Havard Halland, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, October 2013.
- Resource-Backed Investment Finance in LDCs with Havard Halland, Economic Premise No. 123, September 2013.
- Natural Wealth: Is It Inevitably a Curse? with Matheus Cavallari. Bridges Africa Review. Geneva: International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, June 2012.
- The Day After Tomorrow: Commodities And Uncomfortable Natural Riches, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2011.
- Natural Capital and the Resource Curse with Matheus Cavallari, Economic Premise No. 83, May 2012. [VoxEU – Natural wealth: Is it a blessing or a curse?]
- Diamonds May Be Forever, Natural Resource Wealth Is Not, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2012.
- Dealing with Dutch Disease with Milan Brahmbhatt and Ekaterina Vostroknutova, Economic Premise No. 16, May 2010. [Vox EU – Dealing with Dutch Disease]
- Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis with Milan Brahmbhatt.
Economic Premise No. 1, February 2010. - Paul Collier and his Plundering Planet: When Both Economists and Environmentalists Don’t Get it Right, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2010.
- Don’t Blame Mother Nature, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, January 2010.
- The Misery of the “Dutch Disease and Deindustrialization” Argument, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, July 2007.
Commodity Prices
- How Commodity-Dependent Are Latin American Economies? Capital Finance International, summer 2015.
- BRICS Apart as Oil Prices Plunge, Capital Finance International, spring 2015.
- Commodity Super Cycle to Stick Around a Bit Longer, Capital Finance International, summer 2014.
- Distorted Prices in Commodity Markets Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2012.
Infrastructure: finance and the macroeconomy
- Filling the infrastructure financing gap, OMFIF Bulletin, November 2017.
- Global infrastructure finance falls OMFIF, November 2017.
- Matchmaking Finance and Infrastructure, with Aleksandra Liaplina, Capital Finance International, summer 2017.
- Liquidity Glut, Infrastructure Finance Drought and Development Banks, Capital Finance International, autumn 2014.
- Clogged Metropolitan Arteries, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, February 2014.
- Development Banks and Post-Crisis Blues in Investment Finance, Growth and crisis blog – World Bank, August 2013.
- Energy hedging is a must in Brazil… as elsewhere in the region Roubini’s EconoMonitor, November 2007
- Electricity and macroeconomics in Brazil: the end of the golden age, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, July 2007.
Gender equality and economic growth
- (PR) Gender Equality and Economic Growth in Brazil: A Long-Run Analysis, with Pierre-Richard Agénor, Journal of macroeconomics 43 (2015) p.155-172 (earlier version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6348, January 2013). [VoxEU – Gender equality and economic growth: A framework for policy analysis]
- (PR) On Gender and Growth: The Role of Intergenerational Health Externalities and Women’s Occupational Constraints, with Pierre-Richard Agénor and Luiz Pereira da Silva, Structural change and economic dynamics 30 (2014), p.132-147 (earlier version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5492, December 2010)
- (PR) Access to Infrastructure and Women’s Time Allocation: Evidence and a Framework for Policy Analysis, with Pierre-Richard Agenor, Revue d’economie du developpement 2014/1 (vol. 22), p. 37-73 (earlier version: Working Paper P45. Fondation pour les Études et Recherches sur le Développement International, Clermont-Ferrand, France. April 2012).
- No Women, No Growth – The Case for Increasing Women’s Leadership in Latin America, with Paula Tavares, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, August 2018
- Development through gender equality, OMFIF Bulletin, March 2018.
- Gender Equality and Economic Growth in Brazil, with Pierre-Richard Agénor.
Economic Premise No. 109, February 2013. - Gender Equality Pays Off in Brazil, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, March 2013.
- Measuring the Effect of Gender-Based Policies on Economic Growth, with Pierre-Richard Agénor. Economic Premise No. 85, June 2012.
- Women’s Day: A Time for Concern, Not Complacency, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2012.
- Gender and Trade, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, July 2011
- How Do Women Weather Economic Shocks? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, January 2011
- My Own View on Women, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2010.
Climate Change
- Climate Change: Get Ready to Adapt! with Milan Brahmbhatt, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, February 2013.
- Trade and Climate Change: Handle with Care, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, August 2012.
- An Inconvenient Truth for Latin America, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, July 2011.
- To Address Climate Change We Need to Measure Poverty Better, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2011.
- Macro-Disasters, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2011.
- Asymmetric Climate Change, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, May 2008.
Jobs, Poverty, Inequality and Migration
- South Asia and the Geography of Poverty, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2013.
- It’s Jobs, Stupid! Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2012.
- Fighting Inequality to ‘Bend the Arc’ of History, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2012.
- Jobs as a Gateway to Prosperity, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, October 2012.
- Jobs as a Scorecard, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, July 2012.
- Is Europe as Unequal as the U.S.? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, July 2012.
- Sewing Success: How Textile Jobs Help Reduce Poverty, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, June 2012.
- Less Poor but More Unequal, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2012.
- Emerging Markets Lead in Job Recovery, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2012.
- Should We Still Worry About Food Prices? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2012.
- Are Emerging Markets Leading the Way in Job Creation? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2012.
- Food Prices, Financial Crisis and Droughts Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2011.
- Food Prices and the 7 Billionth Baby, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2011.
- Small Is Beautiful in Job Creation, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2011.
- Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, October 2011.
- Remittances Rebound but Pressures Persist, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2011.
- Money Can’t Buy Equality, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2011
- The Food Price Threat to Poor Continues, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, April 2011.
- The Poor Are Paying the Price of the Food Cost Spike, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2011.
- Do the Poor Really Benefit from Labor Migration? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, January 2011.
- The Day After Tomorrow: The Final Battle in the War Against Poverty with Marcelo Giugale, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, November 2010.
Others
- The Economics of Human Rights and MDGs in Practice with Milan Brahmbatt,
In Langford, M. & Yamin, A. (eds.), MDGs and Human Rights: Past, Present and Future, Cambridge University Press, 2013. - How Human Rights Have Contributed to Development Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2011.
- The World Bank as hummingbird: Leveraging knowledge for development finance, East Asia and Pacific on the Rise – World Bank, March 2018.
- New political economy of micro-stability, with Phil Psilos, INTERFIMA, February 2018.
- Toward a Migration Development Bank for Transition Economies, with Aleksandr Gevorkyan, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2015.
- What Can We Learn from Islamic Finance? Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, March 2012.
- Drugging Development, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, June 2012.
- Freedom and Development: Something Worth Fighting For Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, June 2011.
- Delivering Aid Differently, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, February 2011.
- Investment climate and microeconomic reforms, Roubini’s EconoMonitor, May 2007.
- The Role of Cultural Heritage in Poverty Reduction, Growth and Crisis blog – World Bank, May 2010.

Articles 2017 by Otaviano Canuto
Articles 2017 (Otaviano Canuto)
I – Global Economy
China and the new phase of trade expansion, OMFIF, Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, December 2017
Two globalization processes will evolve in parallel, and might even reinforce each other. Much will depend on the extent to which anti-globalization sentiment rises or falls in key markets. Progress on trade deals like the new TPP and the wide reach of the Belt and Road should engender some confidence that international economic cooperation has not reached a nadir under President Trump – but can strike out in new and positive directions.
Overlapping Globalizations, Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, November 2017
Current technological developments in manufacturing are likely to lead to a partial reversal of the wave of fragmentation and global value chains that was at the core of the rise of North-South trade from 1990 onward. At the same time, China – the main hub of the global-growth-cum-structural-change of that period – may attempt to extend the previous wave through its “One Belt, One Road” initiative.
The Metamorphosis of Financial Globalization Capital Finance International, Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, autumn 2017
After a strong rising tide starting in the 1990s, financial globalisation seems to have reached a plateau since the global financial crisis. However, that apparent stability has taken place along a deep reshaping of cross-border financial flows, featuring de-banking and an increasing weight of non-banking financial cross-border transactions. Sources of potential instability and long-term funding challenges have morphed accordingly.
Bloated central bank balance sheets Capital Finance International, Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, spring 2017 (w/ Matheus Cavallari)
Central banks of large advanced and many emerging market economies have recently gone through a period of extraordinary expansion of balance sheets and are all now possibly facing a transition to less abnormal times. However, the fact that one group is comprised by global reserve issuers and the other by bystanders receiving impacts of the former’s policies carries substantively different implications. Furthermore, using Brazil and the U.S. as examples, we also illustrate how the relationships between central bank and public sector balance sheets have acquired higher levels of complexity, risks and opacity. (.pdf version here from OCPPC)
Global Imbalances on the Rise Capital Finance International, winter 2017
Signs of a possible resurgence of rising global current-account imbalances have returned attention to the issue. We argue here that, while not a threat to global financial stability, the resurgence of these imbalances reveals a sub-par performance of the global economy in terms of foregone product and employment, i.e. a post-crisis global economic recovery below its potential. In addition, we approach how the re-orientation of the US economic policy already announced by president Trump suggests risks of new bouts of tension around global current account imbalances.
NAFTA at the Crossroads Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, May (w/ Michael McKeon and Samuel George)
The U.S. Senate voted to confirm Robert Lighthizer as United States Trade Representative last week, rounding out President Donald Trump’s cabinet and giving momentum to his trade agenda. At his swearing-in ceremony on May 15, Ambassador Lighthizer predicted that President Trump would permanently reverse “the dangerous trajectory of American trade,” and in turn make “U.S. farmers, ranchers and workers richer and the country safer.” This policy shift will begin in earnest in the coming weeks, when Lighthizer meets with congressional trade leaders to discuss the administration’s plan to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
II – Infrastructure Finance
Bridging Finance and Infrastructure, Cornell on Emerging Markets, December 1, 2017 (w/ Aleksandra Liaplina)
A bridge between private sector finance and infrastructure can be built if properly structured projects are developed, with risks and returns distributed in accordance with different incentives of stakeholders.
Filling the infrastructure financing gap, OMFIF, Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, December 2017
Infrastructure investment has fallen short of what is needed to support potential growth. At the same time, financial resources in world markets have contended with low long-term interest rates, while opportunities for greater returns from potential infrastructure assets are missed.
Matchmaking Finance and Infrastructure Capital Finance International, Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center summer 2017 (w/ Aleksandra Liaplina)
The world economy – and emerging market and developing economies in particular – display a gap between their infrastructure needs and the available finance. On the one hand, infrastructure investment has fallen far short from of what would be required to support potential growth. On the other, abundant financial resources in world markets have been facing very low and decreasing interest rates, whereas opportunities of higher return from potential infrastructure assets are missed. We approach here how a better match between private sector finance and infrastructure can be obtained if properly structured projects are developed, with risks and returns distributed in accordance with different incentives of stakeholders. (.pdf version here from OCPPC)
III – Brazil
Brazil’s Economic Deliverance Project Syndicate, September 28
Brazil’s proliferating corruption scandals have imposed substantial costs on some of the country’s largest companies. But, in the long term, today’s efforts to strengthen the rule of law and ensure fair market competition will prove to have been well worth it.
Dissolving corruption in Brazil OMFIF, Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, October
The prevalence of crony relationships between public and private agents is neither new to Brazil nor singular to the country. The dissolution of this framework, even if painful in the short term, has great potential to create economic, political, and social gains in Brazil, and may provide an example for other countries around the world.
Does Brazil’s Sector Structure Explain Its Productivity Anemia? Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, June (w/ Fernanda De Negri)
Brazil’s labor and total-factor productivity (TFP) have featured anemic increases in the last decades. As we illustrate here, contrary to common view, sector structures of the Brazilian GDP and employment cannot be singled out as major determinants of productivity performance. Horizontal, cross-sector factors hampering productivity increases seem to carry more weight.
Long-term finance and BNDES tapering in Brazil Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, June (w/ Matheus Cavallari)
One major policy issue in Brazil is how to boost productivity, while following a path of fiscal consolidation that will take at least a decade to bring the public-debt-to-GDP ratio back to 2000 levels. The productivity-boosting agenda includes not only the implementation of a full range of structural reforms, but also recovering and upgrading the national infrastructure and other long-term investments. Given that fiscal consolidation has already been leading to less transfer of funds—in fact, the reversal—from the Treasury to the National Economic and Social Development Bank (BNDES) and a consequent downsizing of the latter’s operations, pursuing the double objective of raising productivity and adjusting fiscal accounts will require an expansion of alternative sources of long-term asset finance.
Brazil’s Pension Reform Proposal is Necessary and Socially Balanced Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, April
Last week the World Bank released a Staff Note analyzing the pension reform proposal sent last December by Brazil’s Federal Government to Congress. It concludes that: “… the proposed pension reform in Brazil is necessary, urgent if Brazil is to meet its spending rule, and socially balanced in that the proposal mostly eliminates subsidies received under the current rules by formal sector workers and civil servants who belong to the top 60 percent of households by income distribution.” With the help of some charts extracted from the note, we summarize here some of the reasons for such a statement.
The Brazilian debt hangover Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, January
With the help of five charts, we approach the Brazilian credit cycle, the downward phase of which helps understand why the post-crisis recovery has been so hard to obtain. In our view, the profile of such a credit cycle in effect points to it as a special chapter of our previously approached determinants of the Brazilian economic crisis.
The Brazilian productivity anemia Cornell on Emerging Markets, April 2017
Brazil has been suffering from “anemic productivity growth”. This is a major challenge because in the long run, sustained productivity increases are necessary to underpin inclusive economic growth. Without them, increases in real labor earnings tend to conflict with global competitiveness; collecting taxes in order to fund government expenditures on infrastructure and social policies becomes a heavy burden; returns to private investment becomes harder to achieve; and ultimately citizens will have less access to high-quality goods and services at affordable prices. The focus on urgent fiscal reforms adopted by the new government– public spending cap, social security reform – must be accompanied by action on the productivity front.
IV – Emerging Markets
Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, March 2017 (w/ Sam George)
In the current environment, Erdogan is no longer striving to prove Turkey is ready for the EU and many believe that this course has rendered Turkish accession extremely unlikely, at least in the near term. From a purely economic standpoint, a political falling out would be a shame. The European Union is the most important trading partner for Turkey, and 40 percent of Turkey’s exports are destined for European countries. Turkey has increasingly become a part of European production chains for manufacturing as well. If political ties are not deepened, these economic links may not reach their full potential. In the meantime Turkey’s economy continues to grow, and the country maintains its momentum. But as Turks prepare to take to the polls to address a political crossroads, they must not lose track of the economic crossroads bearing down on them from beyond the bend.
Colombia: getting growth, getting peace Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, March 2017 (w/ Diana Quintero)
The Santos administration has delivered on two of its main promises: sign a peace agreement with the FARC guerrilla and get approved a significant structural tax reform. We approach here why both are expected to become strong pillars to help keep the growth-cum-poverty-reduction momentum of the last decades.
Cuba Online Huffington Post, INTERFIMA, Seeking Alpha, OCP Policy Center, August 2017 (with Sam George)
Dual transitions are under way in Cuba. The island is slowly opening its economy, and a new crop of younger political leaders, potentially more open to democratic norms, waits in the wings. A third transition, the rise of digital access, is also in an early stage. But it is this third transition that arguably has the most momentum and could significantly accelerate the first two.

Four Lectures on Emerging Markets and the Global Economy
Four Lectures on Emerging Markets and the Global Economy
Otaviano Canuto, Casablanca, 15-18 January 2017
- Asset Accumulation and Growth in Developing Economies
- Behind our “measured ignorance”
- Natural Capital and the Resource Curse
- Poverty- and Middle-Income Traps
- Innovation, Capabilities and Intangible Wealth
- Investment Climate and Infrastructure
- Income and Efficiency Gaps
Canuto, O. and Cavallari, M. “Natural Capital and the Resource Curse“, Economic Premise No. 83. World Bank. Washington D.C. May 2012.
Brahmbhatt, M.; Canuto, O. and Vostroknutova, E. “Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis”, in Canuto, O. and Giugale, M. (eds.) The Day after Tomorrow: A Handbook on the Future of Economic Policy in the Developing World, World Bank, Washington D.C, 2010.
Agenor, P-R.; Canuto, O. and Jelenic, M. “Avoiding middle income growth traps”, Economic Premise No. 98. World Bank. Washington D.C. November 2012.
Agenor, P-R.; Canuto, O. and Jelenic, M. “Access to Finance, Product Innovation, and Middle-Income Growth Traps”, Economic Premise No. 137. World Bank. Washington D.C. March 2014.
Canuto, O.; Dutz, M. and Reis, J.G. “Technological learning: climbing a tall ladder”, in Canuto, O. and Giugale, M. (eds.) The Day after Tomorrow: A Handbook on the Future of Economic Policy in the Developing World, World Bank, Washington D.C, 2010.
Cirera, X. and Maloney, W. F. “The innovation paradox: Developing-Country Capabilities and the unrealized promise of technological catch up”, World Bank, Washington D.C., 2017 (Executive summary and ch.1)
World Bank, “A better Investment climate for everyone”, World Development Report 2005, World Bank, Washington D.C. 2004
Araujo, J.T., Vostroknutova, E., and Wacker, K.M. “Understanding the Income and Efficiency Gap in Latin America and the Caribbean“, World Bank, 2016
- Trade Globalization and Industrialization
- Globalization and “The Great Convergence”
- China: from the Great Transformation to Rebalancing
- What Happened to World Trade
- The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development
- Premature Deindustrialization
- China’s Rebalancing and Sub-Saharan Africa
- Middle East and North Africa needs reforms
Baldwin, R. “The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization”, The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 2016.
Hallward-Driemeier, M. and Nayyar, G. “Trouble in the Making? : The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development”, World Bank, Washington D.C., 2017
WIPO – World Intellectual Property Right Organization, World Intellectual Property Report 2017 – Intangible Capital in Global Value Chains, Geneva, 2017 (Executive Summary and ch.1)
Canuto, O. “What happened to world trade?”, OCP Policy Brief PB-16/15, June 2016.
Dadush, U. “Is Manufacturing Still a Key to Growth?”, OCP Policy Paper PP-15/07,
Canuto, O. “Overlapping globalizations”, OCP Policy Brief PB-17/ , November 2017.
Canuto, O. “China, Brazil: Two Tales of a Growth Slowdown”, Capital Finance International, summer 2013.
Chen, W. and Nord, R. (2017). “A Rebalancing Act for China and Africa: The Effects of China’s Rebalancing on Sub-Saharan Africa’s Trade and Growth”, IMF African Department Paper Series.
Lakatos, C. et al. (2016). “China’s Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa”, World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 7666, May 2016.
Azour, J. (2017). “A time for action”, Finance & Development, December, Vol. 54, n. 4.
Arezki, R. (2017). “Getting There”, Finance & Development, December, Vol. 54, n. 4.
- Financial Globalization and Emerging Markets
- The Metamorphosis of Financial Globalization
- Unbalanced Growth in the Global Economy
- Macroeconomic Policies in Advanced Economies After the Global Financial Crisis
- Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
- Global Debt
- China’s Great Leverage
- Finance and Infrastructure
Canuto, O. “Macroeconomics and Stagnation – Keynesian-Schumpeterian Wars”, Capital Finance International, May 2014.
Canuto, O. and Cavallari, M. “The mist of central bank balance sheets”, OCP Policy Brief PB-17/07, February 2017
Canuto, O. “The Metamorphosis of Financial Globalization”, Capital Finance International, Autumn 2017
Canuto, O. Global Imbalances on the Rise Capital Finance International, winter 2017
Canuto, O. and Gevorkyan, A. “Capital Flows and Deleveraging in Emerging Markets: the Great Portfolio Rebalancing”, Huffington Post, 2016
Canuto, O. and Gevorkyan, A. “Tales of emerging markets”, EconoMonitor, August 8, 2016
Hannan, S.A., The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis, IMF Working Paper WP/17/52, February 2017.
Canuto, O., “Whither Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Reserves” Capital Finance International, winter 2015-2016.
Canuto, O. and Liaplina, A. Matchmaking Finance and Infrastructure OCP Policy Brief PB-17/23, June 2017
Canuto, O. “China’s Spill-Overs on Latin America and the Caribbean”Capital Finance International, summer 2016.
IMF, 2017 External Sector Report, July 28, 2017
IMF, People’s Republic of China – Financial Sector Stability Assessment, December 2017
Canuto, O. and Zhuang, L. “Shadow Banking in China: A Morphing Target”, Huffington Post, 2015.
- Macroeconomic Policies in Emerging Markets
- Fiscal Policy for Growth and Development
- Macro-Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets
- Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation
- Macroeconomics and Sovereign risk Ratings
Brahmbhatt, M. and Canuto, O. “Fiscal Policy for Growth and Development“, Economic Premise No. 91. World Bank. Washington D.C. October 2012.
IMF “Tackling Inequality”, ch. 1 of IMF Fiscal Monitor: Tackling Inequality, October 2017.
IMF, “IMF Fiscal Monitor: Achieving More with Less”, April 2017
Canuto, O. and Ghosh, S., “Overview”, in Canuto, O. and Ghosh, S., (eds.), Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets, World Bank, 2013.
Canuto, O. and Cavallari, M. “Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Regulation: Whither Emerging Markets“, in Canuto, O. and Ghosh, S., (eds.), Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets, World Bank, 2013.
Canuto, O. “How Complementary Are Prudential Regulation and Monetary Policy?“, Economic Premise No. 60. World Bank. Washington D.C. June 2011
Canuto, O.; Mohapatra, S. and Ratha, D. “Shadow Sovereign Ratings“, Economic Premise No. 63. World Bank. Washington D.C. August 2011.
Canuto, O.; Santos, P.F. and Porto, P.C.S., “Macroeconomics and Sovereign Risk Ratings“, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 2. May 2012.